nakamoto forecasting
"I'm better with code than with words though"
block height
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price (usd)
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mempool txs
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fee (sat/vb)
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hashrate (eh/s)
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current supply
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inflation rate
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monetary analysis: m2 vs bitcoin supply
ln(M₂) = a + b·t
Assumes exponential M2 growth, due to compounding interest on global debt.
bitcoin supply
m2 money supply
m2 regression (model)
bitcoin price forecast: m2 model
ln(price) = α + β·ln(M₂)
Models the asset's price as a power-law function of M2 money supply using log-log regression.
btc price (actual)
btc price model
95% confidence interval